SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 60.07%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 19.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.76%) and 0-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.31%), while for an Augsburg win it was 2-1 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Augsburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
19.46% ( -0.16) | 20.47% ( 0.02) | 60.07% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 59.4% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.86% ( -0.37) | 37.13% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.67% ( -0.4) | 59.33% ( 0.41) |
| Augsburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.54% ( -0.38) | 32.46% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.01% ( -0.43) | 68.99% ( 0.43) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.95% ( -0.07) | 12.05% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.45% ( -0.16) | 37.55% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Augsburg | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 4.4% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.37% Total : 19.46% | 1-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.24% Total : 20.47% | 1-2 @ 9.85% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 8.76% ( 0.11)0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 6.95% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 6.18% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 3.91% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 3.68% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.27% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 2.07% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.38% ( 0)Other @ 4.18% Total : 60.07% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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