SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 10 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Corinthians | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 3 | Atletico Mineiro | 10 | 3 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 10 | -1 | 16 |
| 5 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Coritiba | 10 | 2 | 15 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 49.65%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 24.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.32%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Corinthians | Draw | Sao Paulo |
49.65% ( -0.22) | 26.1% ( -0.13) | 24.24% ( 0.34) |
| Both teams to score 47.85% ( 0.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.44% ( 0.73) | 55.56% ( -0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.27% ( 0.59) | 76.73% ( -0.6) |
| Corinthians Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.57% ( 0.21) | 22.42% ( -0.21) |
