Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 47.07%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 25.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 2-1 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (8.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ceara would win this match.
