Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 39.72%. A win for Coritiba had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Coritiba win was 1-0 (11.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos would win this match.
