Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 60.94%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for FC Minsk had a probability of 17.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.94%), while for a FC Minsk win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.
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