SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 43.68%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Independiente had a probability of 26.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 2-1 (7.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.19%), while for a Independiente win it was 0-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Velez Sarsfield | Draw | Independiente |
43.68% ( -0.36) | 30.03% ( -0.04) | 26.29% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 39.51% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.01% ( 0.28) | 66.99% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.74% ( 0.19) | 85.26% ( -0.19) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.28% ( -0.06) | 30.72% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.03% ( -0.07) | 66.98% ( 0.06) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.03% ( 0.52) | 42.97% ( -0.53) |
