SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 44.59%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Independiente had a probability of 27.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.76%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a Independiente win it was 0-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigre would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Tigre | Draw | Independiente |
44.59% ( 0.64) | 27.79% ( -0.08) | 27.61% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 45.85% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.52% ( 0.01) | 59.48% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.16% ( 0.01) | 79.84% ( -0.01) |
| Tigre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.43% ( 0.34) | 26.57% ( -0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.21% ( 0.44) | 61.79% ( -0.44) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.45% ( -0.46) | 37.55% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.67% ( -0.45) | 74.33% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tigre | Draw | Independiente |
| 1-0 @ 13.22% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 8.76% ( 0.16)2-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.87% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.79% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.96% Total : 44.59% | 1-1 @ 12.95% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.98% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.2% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.66% Total : 27.79% | 0-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 6.34% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.71% Total : 27.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 37 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 29 |
| 3 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 28 |
| 4 | TalleresTalleres | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| 5 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 27 |
| 6 | BelgranoBelgrano | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 27 |
| 7 | Rosario CentralRosario | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 26 |
| 8 | LanusLanus | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 25 |
| 9 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 |
| 10 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 23 |
| 11 | TigreTigre | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 12 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 20 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 19 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 18 |
| 15 | Racing ClubRacing | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 18 |
| 16 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 17 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 18 |
| 18 | ColonColon | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 17 |
| 19 | HuracanHuracan | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 |
| 20 | Barracas Central | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 17 |
| 21 | Platense | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 17 |
| 22 | Instituto | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 17 |
| 23 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 16 |
| 24 | BanfieldBanfield | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 15 |
| 25 | IndependienteIndependiente | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 26 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 14 |
| 27 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 11 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
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