Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 23
Jul 5, 2023 at 12am UK
Estadio Ciudad de Lanus - Nestor Diaz Perez
Lanus
0 - 1
Velez Sarsfield
Diaz (78'), Martin Ginzo (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-1)
We said: Lanus 1-0 Velez Sarsfield
Despite there being 20 positions and 19 points between these two teams ahead of their meeting on Wednesday, we expect the appointment of Mendez to make this a much closer contest than many may expect.
However, Lanus have built plenty of momentum within the past few months, and we can envisage them marginally getting themselves over the line in front of their home fans.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 51.94%. A draw had a probability of 27.1% and a win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 20.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.3%), while for a Velez Sarsfield win it was 0-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.
| Result |
| Lanus | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
51.94% ( 0.09) | 27.15% ( -0.09) | 20.91% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 41.57% ( 0.25) |
| 38.17% ( 0.31) | 61.83% ( -0.3) |
| 18.39% ( 0.23) | 81.61% ( -0.22) |
| 75.91% ( 0.18) | 24.1% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.61% ( 0.25) | 58.39% ( -0.24) |
| 54.77% ( 0.2) | 45.24% ( -0.19) |
