SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 40.74%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.74%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 0-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
40.74% ( -0.71) | 25.51% ( -0.07) | 33.74% ( 0.77) |
| Both teams to score 55.49% ( 0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.61% ( 0.48) | 48.39% ( -0.48) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.47% ( 0.43) | 70.53% ( -0.43) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.46% ( -0.14) | 23.54% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.41% ( -0.21) | 57.59% ( 0.21) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.57% ( 0.72) | 27.43% ( -0.72) |
