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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 39.44%. A win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.49%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Newtown AFC win was 1-0 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Bala Town |
34.21% ( 1.89) | 26.34% ( 1.16) | 39.44% ( -3.05) |
| Both teams to score 52.83% ( -3.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.14% ( -4.51) | 51.85% ( 4.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.39% ( -4.04) | 73.61% ( 4.04) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.18% ( -1.01) | 28.82% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.32% ( -1.27) | 64.68% ( 1.27) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.21% ( -3.55) | 25.78% ( 3.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.27% ( -5.06) | 60.73% ( 5.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Bala Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.24% ( 1.33) 2-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.18)2-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.69)3-1 @ 3.23% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 2.19% ( -0.25)4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.62% Total : 34.22% | 1-1 @ 12.53% ( 0.64) 0-0 @ 7.43% ( 1.25)2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.44)3-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.23)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.34% | 0-1 @ 10.07% ( 0.77) 1-2 @ 8.49% ( -0.45)0-2 @ 6.83% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 3.84% ( -0.65)0-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.42)2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.48)1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.39)0-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.27)Other @ 2.39% Total : 39.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 8 | 75 | 60 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 33 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 25 |
| R | Flint Town UnitedFlint Town | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 22 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
| R | Airbus UK BroughtonAirbus UK | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 66 | -53 | -2 |
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