Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 48.96%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (8.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 0-1 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.