Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 49.67%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 23.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Montevideo City Torque win it was 0-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
