SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 53.53%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 19.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.09%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (8.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
53.53% ( -0.31) | 26.82% ( -0.03) | 19.64% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 40.76% ( 0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.01% ( 0.39) | 61.99% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.27% ( 0.29) | 81.73% ( -0.29) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.54% ( 0.03) | 23.45% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.53% ( 0.05) | 57.46% ( -0.05) |
| Deportivo Maldonado Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.25% ( 0.61) | 46.75% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.7% ( 0.46) | 82.29% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Deportivo Maldonado |
| 1-0 @ 15.89% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 5.57% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 4.24% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 2.02% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.61% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 53.52% | 1-1 @ 12.09% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 10.96% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.44% Total : 26.82% | 0-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.6% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.37% Total : 19.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PenarolPenarol | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Defensor SportingDefensor | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | NacionalNacional | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Montevideo WanderersWanderers | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Cerro Largo | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | Deportivo MaldonadoMaldonado | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 18 |
| 7 | LiverpoolLiverpool | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | River PlateRiver Plate | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | DanubioDanubio | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 14 |
| 10 | Racing de MontevideoRacing | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Montevideo City TorqueTorque | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Plaza ColoniaPlaza Colonia | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 13 |
| 13 | CerroCerro | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Boston RiverBoston River | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | La Luz | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | FenixFenix | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 |
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