Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 37.75%. A win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 34.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.91%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Cerro Largo win was 1-0 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
-0.09) 
0.02) 
