SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugano win with a probability of 46.75%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 28.33% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugano win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 0-1 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lugano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | FC Winterthur |
46.75% ( 0.47) | 24.92% ( 0.01) | 28.33% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 54.87% ( -0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.96% ( -0.34) | 48.03% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.8% ( -0.31) | 70.2% ( 0.31) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.41% ( 0.07) | 20.59% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.87% ( 0.1) | 53.13% ( -0.11) |
| FC Winterthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.09% ( -0.53) | 30.9% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.8% ( -0.62) | 67.19% ( 0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | FC Winterthur |
| 1-0 @ 10.05% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.19% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.65% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.69% Total : 46.74% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.36% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.91% | 0-1 @ 7.47% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.93% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.96% Total : 28.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Young Boys | 33 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 78 | 27 | 51 | 68 |
| 2 | Servette | 33 | 12 | 15 | 6 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 51 |
| 3 | LuganoLugano | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 53 | 44 | 9 | 50 |
| 4 | Luzern | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 46 |
| 5 | Grasshopper ZurichGrasshopper | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 43 |
| 6 | Basel | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 44 | 45 | -1 | 42 |
| 7 | St GallenSt Gallen | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 49 | 10 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Zurich | 33 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 9 | FC WinterthurWinterthur | 33 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 31 | 61 | -30 | 32 |
| 10 | Sion | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 40 | 65 | -25 | 31 |
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