SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 30.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.04%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Monza |
| 30.63% | 25.52% ( 0) | 43.85% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 54.28% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.57% ( 0) | 49.43% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.53% ( 0) | 71.47% ( -0) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.02% ( 0) | 29.97% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.91% ( 0) | 66.09% ( -0) |
| Monza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.52% ( 0) | 22.48% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.96% ( 0) | 56.03% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Monza |
| 1-0 @ 8.12% ( -0) 2-1 @ 7.3% 2-0 @ 4.89% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.93% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.19% 3-0 @ 1.96% Other @ 3.24% Total : 30.63% | 1-1 @ 12.11% 0-0 @ 6.74% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.45% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.52% | 0-1 @ 10.05% 1-2 @ 9.04% 0-2 @ 7.51% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.5% 0-3 @ 3.73% 2-3 @ 2.71% 1-4 @ 1.68% 0-4 @ 1.39% 2-4 @ 1.01% Other @ 2.22% Total : 43.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 38 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 90 |
| 2 | Lazio | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 30 | 30 | 74 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 38 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 42 | 29 | 72 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 70 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 66 | 48 | 18 | 64 |
| 6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 63 |
| 7 | Juventus | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 33 | 23 | 62 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 56 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 54 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 53 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 12 | Udinese | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 36 |
| R | SpeziaSpezia | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 59 | -28 | 31 |
| R | Cremonese | 38 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 36 | 69 | -33 | 27 |
| R | Sampdoria | 38 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 24 | 71 | -47 | 19 |
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