SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 47.68%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 27.44% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.4%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
27.44% ( 1.38) | 24.88% ( 0.74) | 47.68% ( -2.12) |
| Both teams to score 54.35% ( -1.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.58% ( -2.19) | 48.41% ( 2.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.45% ( -2.03) | 70.55% ( 2.03) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.23% ( -0.08) | 31.76% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.8% ( -0.09) | 68.19% ( 0.09) |
| Zenit St Petersburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.65% ( -1.73) | 20.35% ( 1.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.25% ( -2.83) | 52.74% ( 2.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | Zenit St Petersburg |
| 1-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.63) 2-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.35)3-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.74% Total : 27.44% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.41) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.56)2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.88% | 0-1 @ 10.29% ( 0.37) 1-2 @ 9.4% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 8.19% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 4.99% ( -0.38)0-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.32)2-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.23)1-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.27)0-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.23)2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.75% Total : 47.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 35 |
| 2 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 30 |
| 6 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 29 |
| 7 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 28 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 | Fakel | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 20 |
| 11 | RostovRostov | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 20 |
| 12 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 19 |
| 13 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 | OrenburgOrenburg | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 14 |
| 15 | Baltika | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sochi | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 10 |
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