SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.38%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 1-0 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Chelsea |
35.4% ( 6.51) | 25.44% ( 0.19) | 39.16% ( -6.7) |
| Both teams to score 56.08% ( 1.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.23% ( 1.32) | 47.77% ( -1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.04% ( 1.21) | 69.96% ( -1.21) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.86% ( 4.89) | 26.14% ( -4.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.78% ( 6.13) | 61.21% ( -6.13) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.93% ( -2.66) | 24.07% ( 2.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.64% ( -3.93) | 58.35% ( 3.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Chelsea |
| 1-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.67) 2-1 @ 8.07% ( 1.05)2-0 @ 5.66% ( 1.11)3-1 @ 3.61% ( 0.87)3-2 @ 2.57% ( 0.46)3-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.76)4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.41)Other @ 3.31% Total : 35.4% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.29% ( -0.35)2-2 @ 5.74% ( 0.34)3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.43% | 0-1 @ 8.96% ( -1.28) 1-2 @ 8.56% ( -0.67)0-2 @ 6.38% ( -1.51)1-3 @ 4.06% ( -0.68)0-3 @ 3.03% ( -1.02)2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.38)0-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.48)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.94% Total : 39.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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