SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 59.75%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 21.1% and a draw had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.23%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (5.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
59.75% ( 0.51) | 19.15% ( -0.06) | 21.1% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 67.37% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.88% ( -0.34) | 28.12% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.12% ( -0.42) | 48.88% ( 0.42) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.6% ( 0.02) | 9.4% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.37% ( 0.05) | 31.63% ( -0.04) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.37% ( -0.56) | 25.63% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.47% ( -0.77) | 60.53% ( 0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.15)1-0 @ 5.7% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.19% Total : 59.75% | 1-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.51% Total : 19.15% | 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.1% Total : 21.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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