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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 25 | 4 | 43 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 26 | 6 | 40 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 24 | 5 | 34 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | New England Revolution | 25 | 2 | 34 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 25 | 2 | 33 |
| 8 | Orlando City | 25 | -8 | 33 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 57.75%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.96%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 0-1 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
57.75% ( 3.21) | 23.06% ( -0.54) | 19.2% ( -2.68) |
| Both teams to score 50.24% ( -2.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.96% ( -1.13) | 49.03% ( 1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.88% ( -1.03) | 71.11% ( 1.03) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.28% ( 0.74) | 16.71% ( -0.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 53.38% ( 1.31) | 46.61% ( -1.31) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.32% ( -3.41) | 39.68% ( 3.41) |
