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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | CF Montreal | 18 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | FC Cincinnati | 18 | 2 | 25 |
| 6 | New England Revolution | 18 | 1 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 19 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 19 | 7 | 32 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 18 | 1 | 29 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 (8.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
31.47% ( -0.12) | 26.32% ( 0.66) | 42.2% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 52.09% ( -2.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.57% ( -2.77) | 52.43% ( 2.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.89% ( -2.43) | 74.11% ( 2.43) |
| FC Cincinnati Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.08% ( -1.48) | 30.92% ( 1.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 32.79% ( -1.77) | 67.21% ( 1.77) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.4% ( -1.49) | 24.6% ( 1.48) |
