Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.87%. A win for Stevenage had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.98%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Stevenage win was 1-0 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
