SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 61.64%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 15.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.56%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.69%), while for a Espanyol win it was 1-0 (6.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Espanyol | Draw | Barcelona |
15.5% ( -0.02) | 22.86% ( 0.02) | 61.64% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 43.89% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.19% ( -0.12) | 53.81% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.72% ( -0.1) | 75.28% ( 0.1) |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.91% ( -0.1) | 47.08% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.45% ( -0.08) | 82.55% ( 0.07) |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.95% ( -0.05) | 17.05% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.79% ( -0.08) | 47.21% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Espanyol | Draw | Barcelona |
| 1-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 2.28% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.14% Total : 15.5% | 1-1 @ 10.69% 0-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.57% Total : 22.85% | 0-1 @ 14.2% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 12.56% ( 0.03)1-2 @ 9.46% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 7.41% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.58% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 3.28% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.47% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.16% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.49% Total : 61.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 70 | 20 | 50 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 75 | 36 | 39 | 78 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 33 | 37 | 77 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 71 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 64 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 60 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 53 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 51 |
| 9 | Mallorca | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 50 |
| 10 | GironaGirona | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 49 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 49 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 49 |
| 13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 43 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 42 |
| 15 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 42 |
| 16 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 17 | Almeria | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 41 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 40 |
| R | Espanyol | 38 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 52 | 69 | -17 | 37 |
| R | ElcheElche | 38 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 30 | 67 | -37 | 25 |
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