Vitesse will be buoyed by their progression to the last 16 of the Europa Conference League and with a win already under their belts against their rivals this season, we think that the hosts will edge out NEC to claim the bragging rights in the Gelderse Derby.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 54.67%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for NEC had a probability of 22.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a NEC win it was 0-1 (5.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.
