SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | FC Volendam | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Groningen | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.15%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 5.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 4-0 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.12%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-2 (1.68%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Groningen |
85.15% ( 0.04) | 9.51% ( -0.02) | 5.34% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 53.97% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.1% ( 0.07) | 20.9% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 60.64% ( 0.1) | 39.37% ( -0.1) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.64% ( 0.02) | 3.36% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 85.22% ( 0.06) | 14.78% ( -0.05) |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.84% ( 0.02) | 44.16% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.75% ( 0.02) | 80.25% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Groningen |
| 3-0 @ 9.66% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 8.19% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.9% ( -0)2-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.23% 6-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.74% ( 0)6-1 @ 2.57% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.86% ( 0)7-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)7-1 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)6-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.67% Total : 85.15% | 1-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 2.86% ( -0)0-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.05% Total : 9.51% | 1-2 @ 1.68% ( -0) 0-1 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.45% Total : 5.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 7 | 1 | 78 | 28 | 50 | 79 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 84 | 36 | 48 | 71 |
| 3 | Ajax | 32 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 82 | 34 | 48 | 66 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 64 | 33 | 31 | 64 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 32 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 58 | 26 | 32 | 58 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 15 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 36 | 15 | 53 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 45 | 6 | 51 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 42 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 41 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 38 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 37 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 34 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 39 | 66 | -27 | 33 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 29 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 28 |
| R | Groningen | 32 | 4 | 6 | 22 | 31 | 64 | -33 | 18 |
| R | Cambuur | 32 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 65 | -44 | 16 |
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