Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roda JC win with a probability of 43.59%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 31.72% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roda JC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.91%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Roda JC would win this match.
0.65) 
-0.06) 
