SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 54.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.09%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melgar | Draw | Patronato |
54.77% ( 0.39) | 25.27% ( -0.16) | 19.96% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 45.09% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.48% ( 0.33) | 56.53% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.49% ( 0.27) | 77.52% ( -0.27) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.35% ( 0.29) | 20.66% ( -0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.77% ( 0.46) | 53.23% ( -0.46) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.82% ( -0.06) | 43.18% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.56% ( -0.05) | 79.44% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melgar | Draw | Patronato |
| 1-0 @ 14.06% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 11.09% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.93% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.28% Total : 54.76% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.92% ( -0.12)2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.63% Total : 25.27% | 0-1 @ 7.49% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.1% Other @ 1.88% Total : 19.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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