SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.63%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest Melgar win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Patronato would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Patronato | Draw | Melgar |
44.34% ( -0.19) | 27.64% ( 0.03) | 28.02% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 46.52% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.24% ( -0.03) | 58.75% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.72% ( -0.02) | 79.28% ( 0.02) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.63% ( -0.11) | 26.37% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.48% ( -0.14) | 61.51% ( 0.15) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.18% ( 0.11) | 36.82% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.39% ( 0.11) | 73.61% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Patronato | Draw | Melgar |
| 1-0 @ 12.94% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.62% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.02% Total : 44.34% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.31% ( 0)Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.64% | 0-1 @ 9.7% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.46% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 28.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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