SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 53.4%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 20.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.1%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for an Atletico Nacional win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Melgar | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
53.4% ( 0.08) | 26.19% ( -0.01) | 20.4% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 43.3% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.78% ( -0.05) | 59.21% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.36% ( -0.04) | 79.63% ( 0.04) |
| Melgar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.67% ( 0.01) | 22.32% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.2% ( 0.02) | 55.8% ( -0.02) |
| Atletico Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.75% ( -0.11) | 44.25% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.67% ( -0.09) | 80.33% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melgar | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 14.81% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 11.1% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.06% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.53% 4-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.85% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.7% ( 0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 53.4% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.88% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.54% Total : 26.18% | 0-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.8% Total : 20.4% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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