Given that off-form Corinthians have managed to win just four of their last 17 matches in all competitions, we expect America Mineiro to notch a narrow first-leg advantage on home soil.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 49.69%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 23.76%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (8.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for America Mineiro in this match.
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