SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Burnley | 6 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Watford | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Blackburn Rovers | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | Stoke City | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 18 | Middlesbrough | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 | Luton Town | 6 | -1 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 37.52%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 35.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Watford in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Watford.
| Result | ||
| Watford | Draw | Middlesbrough |
37.52% ( 0.01) | 26.87% ( -0) | 35.61% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.3% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.13% ( 0.01) | 53.87% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.67% ( 0.01) | 75.33% ( -0.01) |
| Watford Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.2% ( 0.01) | 27.8% ( -0.01) |
