Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.54%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 25.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.