Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 44.3%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 27.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.84%) and 2-1 (8.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.04%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Santos in this match.
