Gremio know they will have to throw caution to the wind to claim the three points on Thursday, and that could leave them vulnerable defensively, and we think Atletico Mineiro will take advantage to claim a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 36.65%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 36.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
