Despite Gremio's upturn in form and their desperation to avoid the drop, we simply cannot look past an away win on Wednesday.
Flamengo have seen off all comers in recent weeks, and they should have enough quality to earn all three points, even considering how difficult the game will be made for them.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.14%) and 0-2 (7.79%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-0 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
