Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 3
Jun 16, 2022 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Alberto José Armando
Boca Juniors
5 - 3
Tigre
We said: Boca Juniors 2-1 Tigre
Even though Tigre will be more pleased with their start to the second phase, we cannot ignore the result in the corresponding fixture several weeks ago. With that in mind, we are backing a narrow win for the home side, who can catapult themselves up the standings in the process.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 59.9%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Tigre had a probability of 16.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.44%) and 2-1 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Tigre win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | Tigre |
59.9% ( -0.7) | 23.78% ( -0.1) | 16.32% ( 0.79) |
| Both teams to score 43.08% ( 1.78) |
| 44.14% ( 1.51) | 55.85% ( -1.51) |
| 23.03% ( 1.21) | 76.97% ( -1.22) |
| 81.58% ( 0.31) | 18.41% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.42% ( 0.52) | 49.57% ( -0.52) |
| 52.8% ( 1.99) | 47.19% ( -2) |
