Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 37.75%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 37.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-0 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
