Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 46.88%. A win for Iran had a probability of 27.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.15%) and 0-2 (8.67%). The likeliest Iran win was 1-0 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for USA in this match.
0.01) 
-0.02) 
