SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 43.03%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 27.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.97%) and 1-2 (7.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.21%), while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 1-0 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Burkina Faso |
27.03% ( -0.23) | 29.94% ( 0.18) | 43.03% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 40.13% ( -0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 33.54% ( -0.6) | 66.46% ( 0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.1% ( -0.41) | 84.9% ( 0.41) |
| Guinea-Bissau Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58% ( -0.55) | 42% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.57% ( -0.47) | 78.43% ( 0.48) |
| Burkina Faso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.18% ( -0.28) | 30.81% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.91% ( -0.33) | 67.09% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea-Bissau | Draw | Burkina Faso |
| 1-0 @ 11.22% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 4.87% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.41% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.16% Total : 27.02% | 1-1 @ 13.21% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 12.94% ( 0.29)2-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.41% Total : 29.93% | 0-1 @ 15.23% ( 0.22) 0-2 @ 8.97% ( 0.06)1-2 @ 7.78% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3.52% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.05% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.12% Total : 43.02% |
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