SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 43.57%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Malawi win was 1-0 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Malawi | Draw | Burkina Faso |
28.67% ( 2.32) | 27.76% ( 1.15) | 43.57% ( -3.47) |
| Both teams to score 46.54% ( -1.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.09% ( -2.93) | 58.91% ( 2.93) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.6% ( -2.33) | 79.4% ( 2.33) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.61% ( 0.31) | 36.39% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 26.83% ( 0.31) | 73.17% ( -0.31) |
| Burkina Faso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.16% ( -3.04) | 26.84% ( 3.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.86% ( -4.18) | 62.14% ( 4.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malawi | Draw | Burkina Faso |
| 1-0 @ 9.87% ( 1.12) 2-1 @ 6.56% ( 0.26)2-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.6)3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.89% Total : 28.67% | 1-1 @ 12.98% ( 0.42) 0-0 @ 9.77% ( 1.03)2-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.69% Total : 27.76% | 0-1 @ 12.84% ( 0.31) 1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.48)0-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.55)1-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.57)0-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.6)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.27)1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.32)0-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.33)Other @ 1.94% Total : 43.56% |
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