SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 62.17%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Djibouti had a probability of 15.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.36%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.54%), while for a Djibouti win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ethiopia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Djibouti |
62.17% ( 2.21) | 22.38% ( -0.89) | 15.45% ( -1.31) |
| Both teams to score 45.13% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.92% ( 1.29) | 52.07% ( -1.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.2% ( 1.1) | 73.8% ( -1.1) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.74% ( 1.22) | 16.26% ( -1.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.21% ( 2.17) | 45.79% ( -2.17) |
| Djibouti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.89% ( -0.98) | 46.1% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.2% ( -0.77) | 81.8% ( 0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Djibouti |
| 1-0 @ 13.61% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 12.36% ( 0.37)2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.51)3-1 @ 5.8% ( 0.25)4-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.36)4-1 @ 2.63% ( 0.21)3-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.18)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.11)Other @ 1.83% Total : 62.15% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( -0.4) 0-0 @ 7.5% ( -0.39)2-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.63% Total : 22.38% | 0-1 @ 5.8% ( -0.47) 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.27)0-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.05)Other @ 1.31% Total : 15.45% |
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