SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Zambia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Congo DR win with a probability of 52.92%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 19.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Congo DR win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (8.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.42%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Congo DR | Draw | Ethiopia |
52.92% ( 0.06) | 27.84% ( 0) | 19.23% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 37.95% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.64% ( -0.06) | 65.36% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.86% ( -0.04) | 84.14% ( 0.04) |
| Congo DR Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.77% ( 0) | 25.23% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.02% ( 0) | 59.98% ( -0) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.75% ( -0.1) | 49.24% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.87% ( -0.08) | 84.13% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Congo DR | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 1-0 @ 17.1% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 11.78% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.35% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.83% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.86% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.32% ( -0)Other @ 1.91% Total : 52.91% | 0-0 @ 12.42% ( 0.02) 1-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 27.84% | 0-1 @ 8.8% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 19.23% |
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