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World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Mar 21, 2025 at 9pm UK
Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria
VN

Ecuador
vs.
Venezuela

 

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Colombia 0-1 Ecuador
Tuesday, November 19 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina121425
2Ecuador12722
3Uruguay12820
4Colombia12519
5Brazil12618
6Paraguay12117
7Bolivia12-1413
8Venezuela12-412
9Chile12-119
10Peru12-127
All competitions
World Cup Qualifying
Last Game: USA 3-1 Venezuela
Saturday, January 18 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings P GD PTS
1Argentina121425
2Ecuador12722
3Uruguay12820
4Colombia12519
5Brazil12618
6Paraguay12117
7Bolivia12-1413
8Venezuela12-412
9Chile12-119
10Peru12-127

We say: Ecuador 2-1 Venezuela

Venezuela may have got the better of Ecuador in last year's Copa America, but that contest took place in a neutral venue in the United States. Their opponents will have home advantage for Friday's contest, and we think that could be crucial given the fact the visitors have lost 13 of their last 15 away qualifiers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ecuador win with a probability of 65.05%. A draw has a probability of 21.6% and a win for Venezuela has a probability of 13.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win is 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (13.4%) and 2-1 (9.35%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.06%), while for a Venezuela win it is 0-1 (5.42%).

Result
EcuadorDrawVenezuela
65.05% (-0.30200000000001 -0.3) 21.61% (0.196 0.2) 13.34% (0.109 0.11)
Both teams to score 42.36% (-0.253 -0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47% (-0.514 -0.51)53% (0.517 0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.41% (-0.438 -0.44)74.59% (0.44099999999999 0.44)
Ecuador Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.39% (-0.26900000000001 -0.27)15.61% (0.272 0.27)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.39% (-0.506 -0.51)44.61% (0.508 0.51)
Venezuela Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
50.2% (-0.139 -0.14)49.8% (0.142 0.14)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
15.48% (-0.099 -0.1)84.52% (0.101 0.1)
Score Analysis
    Ecuador 65.04%
    Venezuela 13.34%
    Draw 21.6%
EcuadorDrawVenezuela
1-0 @ 14.43% (0.15 0.15)
2-0 @ 13.4% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.35% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
3-0 @ 8.3% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)
3-1 @ 5.79% (-0.069000000000001 -0.07)
4-0 @ 3.85% (-0.067 -0.07)
4-1 @ 2.69% (-0.058 -0.06)
3-2 @ 2.02% (-0.033 -0.03)
5-0 @ 1.43% (-0.039 -0.04)
5-1 @ 1% (-0.031 -0.03)
4-2 @ 0.94% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 65.04%
1-1 @ 10.06% (0.063000000000001 0.06)
0-0 @ 7.78% (0.157 0.16)
2-2 @ 3.26% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.51%
Total : 21.6%
0-1 @ 5.42% (0.088 0.09)
1-2 @ 3.51% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-2 @ 1.89% (0.023 0.02)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 13.34%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Colombia 0-1 Ecuador
Tuesday, November 19 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Ecuador 4-0 Bolivia
Friday, November 15 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Uruguay 0-0 Ecuador
Wednesday, October 16 at 12.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Ecuador 0-0 Paraguay
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Ecuador 1-0 Peru
Tuesday, September 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Brazil 1-0 Ecuador
Saturday, September 7 at 2am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: USA 3-1 Venezuela
Saturday, January 18 at 8pm in International Friendlies
Last Game: Chile 4-2 Venezuela
Wednesday, November 20 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 1-1 Brazil
Thursday, November 14 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Paraguay 2-1 Venezuela
Wednesday, October 16 at 12am in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 1-1 Argentina
Thursday, October 10 at 10pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America
Last Game: Venezuela 0-0 Uruguay
Tuesday, September 10 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America


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