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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 46.35%. A win for Pontypridd Town AFC had a probability of 28.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.22%) and 0-2 (8.21%). The likeliest Pontypridd Town AFC win was 1-0 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Pontypridd Town AFC | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
28.09% ( 0.07) | 25.56% ( 0.01) | 46.35% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 52.68% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.17% ( 0.01) | 50.83% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.28% ( 0.01) | 72.71% ( -0.01) |
| Pontypridd Town AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.46% ( 0.06) | 32.53% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.93% ( 0.07) | 69.07% ( -0.07) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.08% ( -0.03) | 21.92% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.81% ( -0.05) | 55.19% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Pontypridd Town AFC | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 1-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.82% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.55% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.94% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.59% Total : 28.09% | 1-1 @ 12.15% 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.98% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.55% | 0-1 @ 10.82% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.21% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.67% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.16% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.62% 1-4 @ 1.77% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.99% ( -0)Other @ 2.31% Total : 46.35% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 44 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 38 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 33 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 28 |
| 6 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 27 |
| 7 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 22 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 21 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 14 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 13 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 11 |
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