SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 86.81%. A draw had a probability of 9.1% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 4.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-3 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.16%) and 0-4 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.28%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-0 (1.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | The New Saints |
4.09% ( -0.06) | 9.1% ( 0.11) | 86.81% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 44.24% ( -1.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.73% ( -1.13) | 26.27% ( 1.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.44% ( -1.47) | 46.56% ( 1.46) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.08% ( -1.28) | 53.92% ( 1.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 12.78% ( -0.81) | 87.22% ( 0.81) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.01% ( -0.19) | 3.99% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 83.15% ( -0.62) | 16.85% ( 0.62) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | The New Saints |
| 1-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.44% Total : 4.09% | 1-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.54% Total : 9.1% | 0-3 @ 11.98% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 11.16% ( 0.47)0-4 @ 9.65% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 7.4% ( -0.08)0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.39)1-2 @ 6.9% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 6.22% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 5.96% ( -0.15)1-5 @ 3.84% ( -0.16)0-6 @ 3.34% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.11)1-6 @ 2.06% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.84% ( -0.12)0-7 @ 1.54% ( -0.05)2-5 @ 1.19% ( -0.1)1-7 @ 0.95% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.55% Total : 86.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 8 | 75 | 60 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 33 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 25 |
| 9 | Flint Town UnitedFlint Town | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 22 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
| 12 | Airbus UK BroughtonAirbus UK | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 66 | -53 | -2 |
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