SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Cardiff MU | 5 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Flint Town United | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Bala Town | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest County | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 5 | -3 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 47.34%. A win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 29.36% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Haverfordwest County win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Caernarfon Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
47.34% ( 0.47) | 23.29% ( -0.1) | 29.36% ( -0.38) |
| Both teams to score 61.2% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.98% ( 0.25) | 40.02% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.61% ( 0.26) | 62.38% ( -0.26) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.81% ( 0.28) | 17.18% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.55% ( 0.49) | 47.45% ( -0.49) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.9% ( -0.12) | 26.1% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.84% ( -0.16) | 61.16% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Haverfordwest County |
| 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.68% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.42% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.03)Other @ 4.06% Total : 47.34% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.28% 0-0 @ 4.49% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.29% | 1-2 @ 7.13% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.34% Total : 29.36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 8 | 75 | 60 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 33 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 25 |
| 9 | Flint Town UnitedFlint Town | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 22 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
| 12 | Airbus UK BroughtonAirbus UK | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 66 | -53 | -2 |
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