SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Flint Town United | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest County | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Newtown AFC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Bala Town | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Cardiff MU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 56.46%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 20.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 0-1 (6.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Haverfordwest County in this match.
| Result | ||
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
56.46% ( 0.11) | 23.22% ( -0.06) | 20.32% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 51.53% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.77% ( 0.16) | 48.23% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.62% ( 0.15) | 70.39% ( -0.15) |
| Haverfordwest County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.12% ( 0.1) | 16.88% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.09% ( 0.17) | 46.91% ( -0.17) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.99% ( 0.04) | 38.01% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.22% ( 0.04) | 74.78% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haverfordwest County | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 1-0 @ 11.41% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 10.15% 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.82% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.01% Total : 56.45% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.22% | 0-1 @ 6.21% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.72% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.53% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.55% Total : 20.32% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 8 | 75 | 60 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 33 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 25 |
| 9 | Flint Town UnitedFlint Town | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 22 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
| 12 | Airbus UK BroughtonAirbus UK | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 66 | -53 | -2 |
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