SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 29.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Aberystwyth Town |
44.82% ( -0.58) | 25.45% ( -0.05) | 29.73% ( 0.63) |
| Both teams to score 54.05% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.48% ( 0.52) | 49.51% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.45% ( 0.47) | 71.54% ( -0.47) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.93% ( -0.05) | 22.06% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.59% ( -0.07) | 55.41% ( 0.07) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.35% ( 0.72) | 30.65% ( -0.73) |
