Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 42.47%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.41%) and 1-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
