SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.62%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 26.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.13%) and 2-1 (8.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Penarol in this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | River Plate |
45.62% ( 0.04) | 27.92% ( -0.46) | 26.46% ( 0.42) |
| Both teams to score 44.76% ( 1.48) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.51% ( 1.72) | 60.49% ( -1.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.39% ( 1.28) | 80.6% ( -1.28) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.48% ( 0.83) | 26.51% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.29% ( 1.09) | 61.71% ( -1.09) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.91% ( 1.34) | 39.09% ( -1.34) |
